Samsung is reportedly in discussions with NVIDIA over next year’s HBM4 pricing, and industry attention is focused on how the final terms will be set. According to Dealsite, although Samsung reduced the price of its 12-hi HBM3E, it is internally targeting price parity with SK hynix for 12-hi HBM4, given its view that strong demand leaves little justification for lowering HBM4 prices. The report adds that negotiations between Samsung and NVIDIA are in their final phase, with a conclusion expected before year-end.

Projected HBM4 Price Convergence Between Samsung and SK hynix

As the report notes, industry sources believe Samsung and SK hynix will probably end up offering HBM4 at similar prices, given that NVIDIA’s heavy demand effectively forces it to procure Samsung’s supply even at higher cost. Should this occur, the wide price differential observed in HBM3E would narrow significantly. The report adds that Samsung’s HBM3E is priced roughly 30% lower than SK hynix’s.

Sources cited in the report indicate that the HBM4 supply price recently agreed upon between SK hynix and NVIDIA is believed to be in the mid-$500 range. Given that SK hynix’s 12-hi HBM3E was priced in the mid-$300s, this reflects a rise of more than 50%. The report further notes that although SK hynix’s overall production costs increased by roughly 30%—largely because its HBM4 base die is fabricated by TSMC—the company secured a price premium of a similar magnitude, helping to offset much of the additional cost.

Samsung’s 1c DRAM Capacity Expansion Plan

The report further states that Samsung plans to boost its 1c DRAM output—the node used in HBM4—to about 150,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 to prepare for future demand. It also points out that Samsung is pursuing a gradual expansion strategy, as profitability remains its key focus for next year. As a result, the company will place greater emphasis on general-purpose DRAM rather than HBM. Samsung’s current 1c DRAM capacity of roughly 20,000 wafers per month is expected to rise to 150,000 wafers per month by 2026.

When Samsung Could Start Shipping HBM4

Another key concern is when Samsung may begin shipping HBM4 to NVIDIA. The report explains that HBM samples progress through three stages—WD (working die), ES (engineering sample), and CS (customer sample). Samsung delivered ES samples to NVIDIA in September, with certification results expected this month. If approved, Samsung will then need to supply mass-production-grade samples, with final qualification anticipated early 2026.

The expectation has been that even with an early-year qualification and an immediate start to mass production, Samsung’s shipments would not commence until the second half of the year. However, amid surging demand for HBM4 from NVIDIA, the report points out that some industry observers now believe Samsung may be able to begin deliveries as early as the second quarter of 2026.

The report notes that, in such a scenario, the assumption that SK hynix would exclusively supply NVIDIA with HBM4 in the first half of the year would no longer hold, reducing the gap between the two companies from six months to roughly one quarter. However, this earlier timeline depends on improvements in Samsung’s mass-production readiness, as the current yield of its 1c DRAM for HBM4 remains around 50%.