With SanDisk signaling that NAND supply will stay tight through 2026, major memory makers are taking an unexpectedly cautious approach. According to Chosun Biz, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Kioxia, and Micron have jointly scaled back NAND flash production in the second half of 2025—sending prices even higher.

The report suggests the move is part of a coordinated push to lift NAND prices that have hovered near cost since last year. Samsung, in particular, is reportedly weighing hikes of 20%–30% or more as it negotiates next year’s supply deals with key global clients, as per Chosun Biz.

Meanwhile, Chosun Biz notes that SK hynix and Micron are also tightening the taps to ride the price upswing. SK hynix has reportedly cut NAND output by around 10%, while Micron is said to be taking a similarly cautious stance as well, keeping production at its main Fab 7 plant in Singapore to the low 300,000-unit range.

As major NAND suppliers move in sync to curb production amid surging AI-driven demand, prices are climbing fast. Industry data cited by the report show NAND prices jumped 15% last quarter alone—and could surge another 40–50% in the coming months.

TrendForce expects NAND Flash contract prices to climb 5–10% in the fourth quarter, with the spot market heating up even faster as strong contract demand drives frequent and sharper price quotes. Spot prices for 512Gb TLC wafers jumped 17.07% this week to US$6.455, as per TrendForce. The market is expected to remain tight in the short term, with price momentum likely extending into next quarter. However, TrendForce cautions that spot prices could ease in early 2026 if contract prices rise too quickly or if end demand slows.

QLC Transition Speeds up

On the other hand, memory giants are also turning to quad-level cell (QLC) NAND, where AI data centers are driving strong demand. Unlike TLC, which stores three bits per cell, QLC holds four—boosting density by about 30% and making it ideal for high-capacity SSDs for AI workloads, the Chosun Biz report explains.

DealSite reports that SK hynix plans to start shipping 321-layer QLC NAND products in the second half of 2026 and significantly expand its sales share. Meanwhile, Samsung, as per DealSite, is stepping up investment in QLC NAND flash, with the 286-layer V9 set as next year’s flagship product. After a slow start to its expand QLC sales strategy launched last year, Samsung is now accelerating efforts, supported by rising NAND prices, the report notes.

The company plans to ramp up V9 QLC NAND production in early 2026, initially focusing on Phase 1 of Plant 4 (P4) at its Pyeongtaek Campus, according to DealSite. Production is also underway on select lines at Samsung’s Xi’an fab in China, the report adds.